Atmospheric science · Climate physics

Understanding how aerosols and clouds shape Earth's climate.

I use physical reasoning, theory, and a hierarchy of models to test how the atmosphere works—and to find where accepted explanations and model behavior break down.

Postdoctoral researcher · Climate Dynamics group · University of Vienna

Zachary McGraw standing in a glacial landscape

Research program

From microscopic processes to planetary climate.

My work follows how microscopic aerosol and cloud processes propagate to radiation, convection, precipitation, circulation, and surface temperature. The goal is not only better simulations, but more reliable physical explanations.

01

Ice clouds and climate

How do dust, soot, and other airborne particles that help ice form affect clouds and climate?

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02

Volcanic aerosols and climate

How do particles high in the atmosphere alter heat, rainfall, and temperature—and when do models exaggerate the response?

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03

Predicting tropical climate change

Do long-standing predictions of weaker tropical rising air and fewer high storm clouds follow from real mechanisms or flawed reasoning?

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04

Models, theory & prediction

How can we tell when a model result reflects atmospheric physics, a modeling choice, or the way a question is framed?

See the approach
Diagram showing how volcanic aerosols alter the atmospheric energy budget

Featured question

How does rainfall change after a large volcanic eruption?

Volcanic aerosols change how the atmosphere gains and loses heat. My work uses computer simulations and physical reasoning to explain how these changes affect precipitation. Understanding these processes is important for evaluating how volcanic eruptions may have affected people and societies in the past, how future eruptions could affect populations, and the risks of deliberate climate interventions.

Read the related publications

Tropical climate change

What does warming really do to the tropical atmosphere?

I use theory and high-resolution models to test which hypothesized responses reflect real atmospheric mechanisms.

Read the related preprints
Schematic of tropical convection and precipitation, showing evaporation E, precipitation P, the lifting condensation level, and atmospheric transport between high and low pressure

Research approach

Connecting physical mechanisms to climate.

Test the assumptions

Understand a standard argument deeply enough to identify its limits, unresolved assumptions, and consequences for the questions we care about.

Connect the scales

Connect small-scale aerosol processes to clouds, rising air, and climate while testing how model detail and assumptions shape the processes they represent.

Interpret the mechanisms

Use equations as a guide to physical intuition, asking what each process means for the atmosphere and climate.

What comes next

Building an integrated theory of aerosol–cloud–climate interactions.

Build analytical foundations for predicting tropical and extratropical responses to aerosol perturbations.

Use kilometer-scale models to investigate aerosol impacts on weather systems and climates.

Evaluate deliberate climate interventions with models that make their effects on sunlight and heat, particles, and atmospheric motion traceable.

Selected first-author work

Publications & preprints

Google Scholar
2026
Preprint

Reconciling the Lack of a Robust Anvil Cloud Amount Response to Warming

arXiv · Read preprint

2026
Preprint

No Reduction of Tropical Convection with Warming Expected from Theory or Models

arXiv · Read preprint

2026
Published

Direct Radiative Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Tropical Troposphere: Clouds, Precipitation, and Circulation in Convection-Resolving and Global Simulations

Journal of Climate · DOI

2025
Published

Do Climate Models Support Claims of Volcanic Global Catastrophes?

Geophysical Research Letters · DOI

2025
Published

The Cloud Radiative Response to Surface Warming Weakens Hydrological Sensitivity

Geophysical Research Letters · DOI

2024
Published

How Volcanic Aerosols Globally Inhibit Precipitation

Geophysical Research Letters · DOI

2024
Published

Severe Global Cooling After Volcanic Super-Eruptions? The Answer Hinges on Unknown Aerosol Size

Journal of Climate · DOI

2023
Published

On the Links Between Ice Nucleation, Cloud Phase, and Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

Geophysical Research Letters · DOI

2020
Published

Global Radiative Impacts of Black Carbon Acting as Ice Nucleating Particles

Geophysical Research Letters · DOI

2020
Published

Global Radiative Impacts of Mineral Dust Perturbations Through Stratiform Clouds

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · DOI

In the news

Research beyond the paper.